Every quarter, the AOP and Deloitte release the Digital Publishers Revenue Index (DPRI), reporting on the ups and downs of revenues across various categories — and anyone working in the industry knows there have been a lot of ups and downs. From the capriciousness of display advertising to the growing subscription cash cow, the fundamentals of the publishing business are in a constant state of flux.
Here, I’m going to summarise the major changes that the DPRI has reported over recent years, along with current trends that might reveal the future fate of the industry — for better and for worse.
But first, a bit of housekeeping. The DPRI covers the revenues of major publishing groups and is thus not representative of the long tail of smaller digital publishers that make up much of the sector. It’s not a barometer for the industry’s revenues as a whole, but rather a snapshot of the “premium” end of digital publishing.
With that out the way, let’s dive into the numbers.
The subscription star continues to rise, though growth is slowing
Five years ago, subscriptions accounted for just 22% of digital publishing revenue, dwarfed by the 42% delivered by display advertising. Today, the gap has narrowed significantly, and subscriptions may soon match or exceed display advertising revenues.
As of Q3 2024, subscriptions make up almost a third of reported revenues, nipping at the heels of display advertising’s contribution, which has shrunk to 38%. This is not quite the precipitous fall in display advertising revenues that we expected back in 2020; rather there have been wild swings up and down that have evened out to a more modest overall decline.
Though display advertising has clung on to its top spot, its unpredictability encapsulates the problem of relying too greatly on a revenue stream over which publishers have limited control. Subscriptions have become a central pillar in revenue diversification strategies for precisely this reason, providing reliable income to compensate for advertising’s inherent instability.
However, hanging over any such strategy is the question of when subscriptions will reach their peak. By looking at subscription revenues on a rolling twelve-month basis — which smooths out quarterly fluctuations — we can see that growth is indeed slowing. Starting at Q3 2023, when growth sat at 17.5%, consecutive reports returned 16.7%, 13%, 9%, and, finally, 7.3% in Q3 2024.
Smart publishers should be planning how their subscription strategy will shift once revenue growth plateaus. Luckily, there are numerous other revenue streams that can be tapped to eke out further diversification.
Audio rises, video stalls, and data is golden
Since we first started tracking digital audio back in Q3 2020 – encompassing podcasts and spoken versions of articles – the category has seen a meteoric rise, with a more than twentyfold increase in revenue. While ultimately a minor share of total revenues, at nearly 2%, audio has become a reliable source of growth.
Video, on the other hand, has contracted by around 15% in the same period. Given the near-total capture of online video by Youtube and social platforms and the inherent production challenges of video content, it’s not a surprise that publishers have struggled to grow this category; but it is worth noting this capture did not occur entirely organically.
Many publishers have developed premium owned and operated video products, but their content doesn’t get listed in search engines where Youtube takes up the vast majority of results. Publishers have been painted into a corner where they must rely on off-site platforms for reach, which in turn craters monetisation opportunities. Video remains important, and takes a far higher share of total revenues (almost 5%) than audio, but its total value lies beyond revenues in metrics such as time on site and engagement.
Looking at more recent revenue drivers, the “miscellaneous” category is the star of the show, with 70% growth in 2024 compared to 2023. Given its name, you may not think this reveals much at all but — to give you a peak behind the curtain — included within this category is data monetisation, which is likely responsible for the substantial increase in miscellaneous revenues.
Agreements struck between publishers and AI developers to provide model training data and to secure inclusion within AI-based search results come under the umbrella of data monetisation, which will have contributed to the recent uptick in miscellaneous revenues. Given the incredible efforts publishers have put into collecting, processing, and packaging their first-party data in recent years, it’s fantastic to see this work pay off.
The gap between the haves and have-nots is widening
Overall digital publishing revenues have remained relatively flat since the extreme fluctuations of the pandemic years. But given how challenging it has become for open web media to be profitable, “relatively flat” is far from bad news. However, though the waters may appear calm, many digital publishers are struggling to stay afloat.
In Q3 2023, 58% respondents reported revenue growth, consistent with the general range we typically see in DPRI reports, where the split between haves and have-nots remains even or skews towards the positive. However, a year later the proportion of publishers reporting growth has steadily trended downwards, to a low of 30% in our most recent Q3 2024 report.
Other than the pandemic-induced statistical anomaly of Q2 2020 — when just 21% of respondents reported growth, followed by an equally sharp rebound to 57% the following quarter — this represents the lowest proportion of publishers reporting revenue growth yet seen in the DPRI findings.
The difference is that, unlike the COVID shock — when revenues also fell precipitously — total revenues today are stable. The revenue pie has not shrunk, there are simply fewer publishers taking a slice, resulting in growth being concentrated among top performers to an extent that we have never seen before.
This contrast in fortunes is a stark reminder of why industry collaboration — and, if you’ll excuse the plug, trade bodies such as the AOP — are so vital. There is clearly a rising tide for a handful of publishers, but it is not lifting all boats.
By sharing the secrets of their success, publishers that are thriving in the current ecosystem can help drive growth across the industry. With so much online content gatekept by big tech companies with more money than most nations, digital publishers must band together, find strength in numbers, and protect the integrity of online information.
Email pged@pressgazette.co.uk to point out mistakes, provide story tips or send in a letter for publication on our "Letters Page" blog
